President Donald Trump said the war with Iran is "very close to over" and predicted a market boom, even as U.S. Central Command confirmed a full naval blockade of Iranian ports and diplomats scrambled to extend a fragile ceasefire before it expires next week.
Trump made the remarks in a prerecorded interview on Fox Business Network's "Mornings with Maria," broadcast Wednesday. He framed the conflict as a decisive American victory and cast Tehran's leadership as eager to reach a deal.
The picture on the ground, though, is more complicated. Peace talks failed last weekend. A senior U.S. official told CNBC that Washington "has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire," even as the Associated Press reported Wednesday morning that the two sides had reached an "in principle agreement" to extend their two-week truce. The ceasefire is set to expire next week, and the window for new talks is narrow.
The president left no ambiguity about how he sees the state of play. In the Fox Business interview, Trump laid out what he described as an overwhelming military advantage:
"I think it's close to over, I view it as very close to over.... If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we're not finished."
He added: "We've beaten them militarily, totally." And he tied the conflict's resolution directly to the nuclear question, saying, "We have to stop them from ever having a nuclear weapon."
On the economic front, Trump predicted that markets would reward a resolution. "Stock market is going to boom, it's already booming," he said. Oil prices have soared amid supply disruptions caused by the blockade, and global markets have been turbulent throughout the conflict. A credible peace deal, or even a durable ceasefire extension, could ease those pressures considerably.
Trump also told the New York Post on Tuesday that fresh U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad "could be happening over the next two days," a timeline that suggests the administration believes Tehran is ready to come back to the table. "We'll see what happens, I think they want to make a deal very badly," he said.
While diplomats work the phones, the U.S. military has been tightening the vise. U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been "fully implemented," cutting off Tehran's international sea trade entirely. CENTCOM said it achieved "maritime superiority" and that the blockade was in place within 36 hours, a logistical feat that underscores the scale of American naval power in the region.
The blockade is not allowing ships to enter or exit Iranian ports, a chokehold designed to force Tehran's hand at the negotiating table. The economic pain on Iran is real, and it gives American negotiators leverage that diplomatic pressure alone never provided.
The broader military campaign has drawn intense political debate at home. Senate Democrats have demanded a public case for the strikes after classified briefings, while some progressive officials have gone further in their opposition.
The status of the ceasefire remains murky, and the conflicting signals from different sources illustrate just how fluid the situation is.
The Associated Press reported Wednesday morning, citing regional officials, that the U.S. and Iran have an "in principle agreement" to extend their two-week ceasefire in order to allow for more diplomacy. But a senior U.S. official pushed back on that characterization, telling CNBC that Washington "has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire." The same official added: "There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal."
A White House official told CNBC on Tuesday morning that a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran was under discussion, though nothing had been officially scheduled at that point. Trump's comments to the New York Post about Islamabad talks happening within days suggest the pace may have quickened since then.
The intelligence and military dimensions of the conflict have been extraordinary. Recent accounts from former intelligence officials have shed light on how American agencies exploited Iranian communications during operations, a reminder that the U.S. campaign has extended well beyond conventional strikes.
The Iran conflict does not exist in isolation. AP News reported that a U.S. official said Trump would welcome an end to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict as part of a broader Israel-Lebanon peace agreement, though the president has not specifically demanded such a truce. The official clarified that an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is not part of current U.S.-Iran negotiations, even though Iran has made such a truce a condition for resuming talks with Washington.
That disconnect matters. Tehran is trying to link its own negotiations to the broader regional conflict, a classic move to expand leverage. The administration, so far, has refused to let Iran set the terms of engagement.
Trump also claimed that China agreed not to provide weapons to Iran, though Beijing's Foreign Ministry has denied providing military support to Tehran. Whether that denial holds up under scrutiny remains an open question, but the claim signals that the administration is working multiple diplomatic tracks simultaneously, not just the bilateral channel with Iran.
Some progressive elected officials have drawn sharp criticism for their responses to the conflict. New York City Mayor Mamdani was blasted for condemning U.S. strikes on Iran, a stance that put him at odds with the broad bipartisan consensus supporting American military action against a regime that has pursued nuclear weapons and funded terrorism across the Middle East.
Several questions remain unanswered. No specific terms of any proposed peace deal have been disclosed publicly. The exact expiration date of the ceasefire next week has not been specified. And the mediators working to extend the truce, described by AP only as "regional officials", have not been identified by name.
The military campaign has not been without cost or complication. A friendly fire incident involving Kuwaiti air defenses and U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles during Operation Epic Fury was a sobering reminder that even the most capable military in the world operates in an environment where mistakes carry lethal consequences.
Still, the trajectory is clear. The blockade is in place. The military campaign has degraded Iran's infrastructure to the point where Trump says rebuilding would take two decades. Tehran's leverage shrinks with every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And the ceasefire, however fragile, however disputed its extension may be, suggests that someone in Tehran has concluded that fighting is no longer the best option.
The administration's negotiating position is the strongest any American president has held against Iran in decades. Whether that translates into a deal that actually prevents a nuclear-armed Tehran will depend on what happens in the next few days.
Strength brought Iran to the table. Only firmness will keep them there.
